Feb. 25, 2021. info. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. We look at two of this weeks biggest stories -- the killing of Daunte Wright in Minnesota and the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations decision to pause the use of the Johnson and Johnson covid-19 vaccine. COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. History professor Yohuru Williams speaks with Galen Druke about how the protest movement sparked by George Floyd's murder compares with past social justice movements. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. They also consider whether a new poll showing that America's reputation has rebounded abroad is a good or bad use of polling. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. New rules for the baseball season, Richard Belzer dies and more prison for Harvey Weinstein and R. Kelly | Bonus sports & entertainment episode. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. send a tweet. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. You can't imitate a worldview. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. 450 episodes. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. david senak now. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. Since January 2021, eleven states have enacted laws that limit how teachers can talk about race and racism in schools and close to 200 bills have been introduced in 40 states. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. All rights reserved. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. . Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. The episode tracks the 14 days from the murder of the president to when the Johnsons move into the White House, days filled with tragic ceremony and heartfelt moments of solidarity between Jackie Kennedy and Lady Bird. Above, storm clouds over downtown Laramie, Wyo., on Aug. 13, 2022. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. Join. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. FiveThirtyEight Politics Biden Is Set To Be The Next President 2020-11-07 The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. They also ask whether a recent Gallup poll reporting that a record number of Americans are thriving is a good or bad use of polling. They also consider whether the ensuing confirmation process will impact the countrys broader political environment in a Midterm election year. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. We also look at the future of inflation with economist Kenneth Rogoff. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. BOLIVAR The executive director of the Stark-Tuscarawas-Wayne Joint Solid Waste Management District is going to resign from the position and will then be rehired. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. They also debate whether a poll asking Americans to choose what they think is the best decade of their lives is a good or bad use of polling. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn Thats Changing. In this installment, Robert Crews, a History professor from Stanford University, joins to reflect on the history of the Taliban and the current political landscape in Afghanistan. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. You have to take and pass a grammar test, then submit a transcription template before you can get assignments from Rev. The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. They also continue to track the types of candidates former President Trump has endorsed in the 2022 Republican primaries. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. They also assess whether narratives from the 2021 gubernatorial election in Virginia hold up in light of new data, and debate the hottest legislative topic in Washington: permanent Daylight Saving Time. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Political scientists Yanna Krupnikov and John Barry Ryan suggest that focusing only on the Left/Right divide in American politics is reductive. They also break down the governor's race in New Jersey and other elections around the country. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. Each week, host Jody Avirgan brings you stories and interviews about how data is changing our lives. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. The crew discusses the arguments Biden laid out and where he stands with American voters two years into his presidency. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. gold rush supreme second chance winners. The data behind that evolution is striking. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded. FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.Website: http:. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. What does the bench of Democratic leadership look like beyond Biden? Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. All. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. It's a busy week! You can get between 30 cents to $1.10 for every audio minute, which sums up to $18 - $66 per audio hour. The crew asks whether Biden's approval rating could be boosted by the American Rescue Plan and how popular he'd have to be to avoid a backlash at the midterms. The crew runs down a list of theories in a game of Buy, Sell, or Hold to discuss what evidence, if any, supports some of these arguments. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. Tia Mitchell, of the Atlanta Journal Constitution, joins the podcast to discuss what to expect from former President Trump's second impeachment trial. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." Nate and Galen open the mailbag and answer listeners' questions about politics, polling and anything else on their minds. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Saturday, February 25, 2023. . A message from Martine. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. In Matthew Continetti's new book, The Right: The Hundred Year War For American Conservatism, he argues that in order to understand where the right is heading, you have to understand where it's been. RSS Loading. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. 9 days ago. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. Local news is disappearing across the country. Georgians handed control of the Senate to Democrats in a pair of dramatic runoffs and voted for a Democrat for president for the first time in 28 years. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. FiveThirtyEight Politics News Latest Transcripts How To Make Polls Better 240 views about 2 years ago 01:12:44 Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Americans are spending more and more time alone, and more than a third reported experiencing serious loneliness" in 2021. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. It's a big election week for liberal democracies. On Thursday, the Supreme Court wrapped up its first term with a 6-3 conservative majority on the bench. As we head into the new year and our attention begins to turn to the presidential primaries, we decided to reair our audio documentary series, The Primaries Project. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy 240 views Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. About 32 million Americans get summoned for jury duty each year. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. Institutions are the rules of the game of our societies that direct our everyday lives in fundamental ways. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. Reporter Greg Bluestein explains how it happened in his new book, Flipped: How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power, and discusses with Galen what it means for 2022 and beyond. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. June 2, 2016. Hello and welcome to the identity politics podcast I'm deal injury work. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. If you don't already have iTunes, you can download it here. Nate and Galen answer listener questions in this installment of Model Talk. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. I'm Galen Truk. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Galen and Nate open the mailbag to answer listeners questions about politics, polling and more. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing.