Notre Dame Assistant Coaches Salaries, Articles OTHER

If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Still, the state's worth watching. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. First, what are bellwether counties? These are the bellwether counties. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. hide caption. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. 11. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . It gets a lot more interesting. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Seriously. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . 2. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Watauga has gone for. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Subscribe to breaking updates On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. 4. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Team up with others in your region, and help out by It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. 10. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. 2016 Election (1135) North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Joe Biden (631) Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? ), voted Democrat again in 2020? None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. It's happened before. 9. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. 8. Lets find a coin, and flip it. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? What are your thoughts on this article? Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate.